From Vatican Insider, Andrea Tornielli.
The question thus remains open. The fact that the phenomenon is ongoing means it is unlikely a statement will be issued confirming it as supernatural. But those who are hoping for a negative assessment may also be disappointed. It may be useful to recall what has happened in Argentina over the past thirty years, in terms of the two apparitions witnessed in San Nicolas which is located 250 km outside Buenos Aires (but not in the diocese of Buenos Aires) and in Salta.
The apparitions of San Nicolas started in 1983 and have not stopped since (250 thousand faithful gather to pray on each anniversary); the seer, Gladys Quiroga de Motta, mother, grandmother and a very simple woman, gave herself up completely to the Church authorities and spends most of her day in silent prayer. The current bishop, Héctor Sabatino Cardelli, has celebrated mass and led processions in the place where the apparition was seen, on the banks of the Paraná river. A large shrine marks the spot, where a spring was also discovered. The Church has also approved the white scapular created especially for those who experience physical and spiritual suffering. The seer’s spiritual guide, Fr. Carlos Pérez, says he is convinced the apparition really did take place. More than 1800 messages relating to the apparition have been published in a volume approved by the former Bishop of San Nicolas, Domingo Salvador Castagna, who once stated: “I firmly believe this is an event of the Virgin Mary.”
Another case Jorge Mario Bergoglio dealt with, albeit from a distance, as an Argentine bishop, is that involving the apparitions in Salta, a province located 1,500 km away from Buenos Aires. In this case, the local archbishop, Mario Carniello, was far more sceptical.
Cardinal Bergoglio had invited his priests to handle the case of Salta with caution, to consult with the local clergy and to follow the instructions of the local archbishop. But here too, although ecclesiastical leaders were reluctant to acknowledge the supernatural nature of these apparitions, they did not prohibit pilgrimages to the site and efforts have always been made to ensure pastoral care is given to the pilgrims that visit.
Despite what other commentators say about Medjugorje and the Pope, it appears the Holy Father may be more favorable, more open to these events than we think. From the same article:
In the Apostolic Exhortation “Evangelii Gaudium”, Francis states: “Popular piety enables us to see how the faith, once received, becomes embodied in a culture and is constantly passed on. Once looked down upon, popular piety came to be appreciated once more in the decades following the Council. In the Exhortation Evangelii Nuntiandi, Pope Paul VI gave a decisive impulse in this area. There he stated that popular piety “manifests a thirst for God which only the poor and the simple can know.”
It is “a legitimate way of living the faith,” Francis continues, referring back to the concluding document of the Fifth General Conference of the Episcopate of Latin America and the Caribbean, held in Aparecida, “a way of feeling part of the Church and a manner of being missionaries”; it brings with itself the grace of being a missionary, of coming out of oneself and setting out on pilgrimage: “Journeying together to shrines and taking part in other manifestations of popular piety, also by taking one’s children or inviting others, is in itself an evangelizing gesture”. Let us not stifle or presume to control this missionary power! To understand this reality we need to approach it with the gaze of the Good Shepherd, who seeks not to judge but to love.” - Vatican InsiderParaphrasing Tornielli, this is what I think will happen: Church officials will be reluctant to acknowledge the supernatural nature of the events at Medjugorje, but they will not prohibit pilgrimages to the site and they will make every effort to ensure excellent pastoral care is given to the pilgrims that visit.